Hot spots | European and American businesses prepare goods in advance for holidays. China's textile

日期：2021-12-18 15:47:18

Situation overview

The early preparation of goods in Europe and the United States led to China's export volume in advance, and the export volume in October hit a record high in the same period.

Since the decline stopped in September, the growth rate of China's textile and garment export further expanded in October, with the export growth of 17% in that month, far exceeding that of previous years.

According to the general law, after the export peak in the third quarter, the export scale will drop significantly in October, and the growth rate will shrink year-on-year. However, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in October this year further accelerated, and the month on month growth rate was only 0.7% lower than that in September. From the perspective of bulk commodity exports, China's exports of clothing, home textiles and other final consumer goods have achieved rapid growth, especially in the EU and US markets.

Since the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic, the sea freight has risen sharply, the loading and unloading labor force in European and American ports has decreased sharply, and the phenomenon of cargo detention in the port is serious. The bottleneck of the supply chain has become the biggest problem in exporting to Europe and America. It has become the consensus of businesses to prepare goods for Thanksgiving, the "black five" Shopping Festival, Christmas and new year's day at the end of the year, which has driven China's export volume in advance, and the export volume has reached a record high in the same period.

Due to the advance of the export quota at the end of the year, it is expected that the growth rate of textile and garment export will probably slow down or even decline in the remaining two months of this year.

There is still a "scissors gap" between purchase prices and export prices. Small and medium-sized enterprises look forward to favorable policies to reverse the current situation of difficult operation.

Since the third quarter, the purchase price of domestic means of production and the sales price of consumer goods have increased, and PPI began to transmit to CPI, but the transmission strength is still insufficient.

In October, the overall level of national consumer prices increased by 1.5% over the same month last year, of which the price of clothing increased by only 0.5%. The export prices of major commodities have also gradually increased, but the growth rate of import prices is still generally higher than that of export prices: in October, the import price of cotton increased by 42%, the chemical fiber increased by 26%, the import price of yarn increased by 35.8%, and the export price of downstream needle woven clothing increased by 23%, which is still lower than that of upstream raw materials.

In November, the State Council issued the notice on Further Strengthening the rescue and assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises, paying attention to the current problems of increasing cost pressure and operating difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, and releasing corresponding assistance policies in a multi pronged and multi-level manner. With the continuous and strong intervention of the national policy of ensuring supply and price stability, the pressure of the continuous rise in the price of bulk raw materials will be gradually relieved, and it is expected to start to fall as soon as the end of the year.

At that time, the profit squeeze of downstream enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises can be reversed.

From January to October 2021, China's textile and garment trade volume reached US $285.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% and 16.6% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export was USD 262.34 billion, an increase of 7.4%, an increase of 16.8% over the same period in 2019; The import was USD 23.44 billion, an increase of 22.6%, an increase of 14.6% over the same period in 2019, and the cumulative trade surplus was USD 238.9 billion, an increase of 6.1%, an increase of 17% over the same period in 2019.

In October 2021, China's textile and garment trade volume reached US $31.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, an increase of 28.7% over the same period in 2019, and a month on month decrease of 1.4%. Among them, the export was US $29.61 billion, an increase of 17.1%, an increase of 29.6% over the same period in 2019 and a month on month decrease of 0.7%; Imports amounted to US $2.29 billion, an increase of 14.7%, an increase of 18.3% over the same period in 2019 and a month on month decrease of 9.1%. The trade surplus of the month was US $27.32 billion, an increase of 17.3%, 30.7% over the same period in 2019 and 0.05% month on month.

Rapid growth in key markets

In October, driven by the external market demand, textile and garment exports continued to make efforts, with exports growing by 17% in the same month, with a double-digit growth rate since February.In the same month, China's textile exports stopped falling and turned up, with an increase of 8%, and the growth rate of clothing rose to 25%, forming a positive pulling effect on the overall export. The expansion of market demand led to the growth of China's exports to all four key markets in October, of which the export growth rate reached double digits except Japan.

Exports to the United States continued to recover.Since the export to the United States stopped falling in September, the export growth continued to expand in October, with the export growth of 17.8% in the same month, including the growth of knitted clothing and woven clothing of major commodities by 43.5%. From January to October, the cumulative export to the United States was US $48.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, an increase of 24.3% over the same period in 2019. Among them, needle woven clothing of major commodities increased by 40%, an increase of 9.9% over the same period in 2019.

Clothing led the EU market to rebound rapidly.In October, China's exports to the EU changed the previous downturn trend and rebounded sharply. In the same month, exports increased by 31.7% year-on-year, of which needle woven clothing, a major commodity, increased by 50.6%. From January to October, China's textile and garment exports to the EU amounted to US $39.67 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% and an increase of 18.3% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export of needle woven clothing increased by 18.7%, an increase of 9.9% over 2019.

Japan's exports fluctuated upward, but the future decline is expected to remain unchanged.In October, the export to Japan stopped its continuous decline for six months and rebounded briefly. The export increased by 6.8% in that month, including 24.5% for needle woven clothing. However, due to the lack of growth momentum in the Japanese market, the long-term trend is still slow decline and decline. From January to October, China's textile and garment exports to Japan decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.6% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity needle woven clothing increased by 8.9% year-on-year and decreased by 5.7% compared with 2019.

Recently, the epidemic situation in ASEAN countries has gradually stabilized, and the local government has taken opening measures to protect the economy, which has restored China's exports to ASEAN.In October, the export of textile and garment to ASEAN increased by more than 20% year-on-year and 2019, and the export of yarn and fabric of major commodities increased year-on-year for three consecutive months. From January to October, China's textile and garment exports to ASEAN increased by 23.6% year-on-year, ranking first in China's export market. An increase of 23.6% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity yarn and fabric increased by 28.2% year-on-year and 7.4% over 2019.

Order backflow continues

From the import situation of major markets, the phenomenon of order backflow appeared in the data in September. The import performance of the United States and Japan from China and ASEAN in the same month was significantly different. The import of knitted clothing and woven clothing from China increased by 17% and 6.2% respectively, while the import from ASEAN increased by only 7%, and Japan's import from ASEAN decreased significantly by 20.2%.

From January to September, 27 EU countries imported 85.49 billion US dollars of textiles and clothing from the world, down 5.8%, and 32.2% from China.The market share of Chinese products accounted for 32.7%, down from the same period in 2020 and still higher than that in the same period in 2019. Among them, textiles accounted for 41.1% and clothing accounted for 29.3%, both lower than 2020 and higher than the same period in 2019. ASEAN's market position was further improved. EU's textile and garment imports from ASEAN increased by 24.9%, accounting for 13.1%, both higher than the previous two years.

From January to September, the United States imported $102.16 billion in textiles and clothing from the world, an increase of 12.2%, and $31.3 billion from China, a decrease of 13.8%. China accounted for 30.6%, lower than the same period in 2020 and 2019.Among them, textiles accounted for 37.4% and clothing accounted for 28.2%, both lower than the same period in 2019 and 2020. Textile and garment imports from ASEAN increased by 28.6%, accounting for 25.4%, both higher than the previous two years.

From January to September, Japan imported US $26.73 billion from the world, a decrease of 6.3%, and imports from China decreased by 10.6%. China accounted for 56.1%, lower than the same period in 2020, but higher than the same period in 2019.Among them, textiles accounted for 57.7%, lower than the same period in 2020 and higher than the same period in 2019; Clothing accounted for 55.6%, higher than the same period in 2020 and lower than the same period in 2019. Textile and garment imports from ASEAN decreased by 2%, accounting for 28.3%, both higher than the previous two years。

热点 | 欧美商家为节假日提前备货，10月份我国纺织服装出口表现不同以往(图4)

热点 | 欧美商家为节假日提前备货，10月份我国纺织服装出口表现不同以往(图5)

热点 | 欧美商家为节假日提前备货，10月份我国纺织服装出口表现不同以往(图6)

The export of major commodities recovered

Since the third quarter, with the weakening of the disturbance factors of epidemic prevention materials, the monthly export of textile and clothing has gradually returned to normal, and the traditional commodities have once again become the initiative to support export growth.In October, textiles and clothing jointly promoted the recovery of double-digit growth in overall exports, of which yarn, fabrics, household textiles and clothing increased by 33.4%, 18.5%, 16.5% and 25% respectively. The export price remained rising, and the export unit price of yarn, fabric and needle woven clothing increased by 35.8%, 18.9% and 23.5% respectively.

The export of epidemic prevention materials to Southeast Asia and central North America remained strong. In October, the export volume to ASEAN and central North America (except the United States and Canada) increased by 77% and 141% respectively.

From January to October, the cumulative export of textiles was USD 118.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, an increase of 19.9% over the same period in 2019, and the export of clothing was USD 143.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, an increase of 14.4% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the total export of masks and protective clothing was US $13.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 77.4%. The number of textiles without masks increased by 34.7% year-on-year and 14% over the same period in 2019; Clothing without protective clothing increased by 37% year-on-year and 13.7% over 2019. Masks and protective clothing account for 5.3% of the total exports. Yarn, fabrics and needle woven clothing of major commodity categories increased by 43%, 35.6% and 25.7% respectively.

Rising import prices of raw materials

In October, the import of textiles and clothing increased by 14.7%, achieving double-digit growth for the eighth consecutive month, of which textiles and clothing increased by 14% and 15.8% respectively.From January to October, the cumulative import increased by 22.6%, and the textile and clothing increased by 15% and 34.6% respectively.

Affected by the increase of uncertain factors in export expectations and the continuous rise of prices, the import volume of key imported commodities yarn, fabrics and needle woven clothing fell.In October, the import volume of the three categories of products increased by 20%, 18% and 21.4% respectively, but they were all driven by the rise of import prices, and the import volume decreased by 11.8%, 4.6% and 6.6% respectively. Among them, the decline in the import of intermediate yarn and fabrics will affect the overall export performance in the later stage.

The import price of textile raw materials remained high. The average import price increased by 33.3% in October, of which the price of cotton and chemical fiber, which accounted for the highest proportion, increased by 42% and 25.8% respectively, which was further enlarged compared with September. From January to October, the cumulative average import price of textile raw materials increased by 13.6%.

Cotton prices at home and abroad reached a new high

In October, the "scissors gap" between cotton import volume and price further expanded, and the import volume fell to 64000 tons that month, a new low since last year, with a decline of 70%. The average import price continued to climb to US $2180 / ton, a new high since last year and 42% year-on-year. From January to October, cotton imports totaled 1.91 million tons, an increase of 16.9%, and the average import price increased by 13.6%.

The structure of cotton import sources was slightly adjusted. From January to October, the three traditional source countries of the United States, Brazil and India and two emerging source countries of Burkina Faso and Benin ranked among the top five. The proportion of imports from Australia further decreased to 1.5% from 5.4% last year.According to the information released by China Cotton Association, in October, affected by factors such as rising commodity market prices, cotton prices at home and abroad rose sharply, and the futures and spot prices reached a new high in the past 10 years. The national cotton acquisition is carried out on a large scale, the price of seed cotton is high, and the acquisition progress is slow. The release of reserve cotton continued. In addition, some new cotton was listed, and the amount of optional resources of textile enterprises increased. However, the peak season of the textile industry was not prosperous. Enterprises in many places continued to be affected by power production restriction, insufficient startup, few new orders, poor sales of yarn and other textiles, and the downstream demand did not improve significantly. Over the same period, the international cotton price rose sharply, but it was still lower than the domestic cotton price, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton increased compared with the previous month.

The price of China cotton price index (ccindex3128b) reached 22313 yuan / ton on October 27, 22301 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3197 yuan compared with the end of the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 52.76%, and the average monthly price was 21448 yuan / ton, a month-on-month increase of 17.61% and a year-on-year increase of 53.72%. At the end of the month, the cotlooka index of international cotton spot price was 123.1 cents / pound, the price within the tariff was 19468 yuan / ton, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was 2833 yuan / ton.

Source: China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce

Disclaimer: the content and pictures of this article are reproduced for exchange and learning only. The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. If you need to forward it, please indicate the source. If you are involved in copyright and other issues, please contact Xiaobian. We will delete the content at the first time!

Pay attention to the suspension of the second batch of central reserve cotton to stabilize the marke The boot rate is declining! No orders, no funds, the order receiving atmosphere is not harmonious -- 返回